Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 218

However, after a sudden inspiration, Jordan realized that he knew nothing about the anti-Japanese forces in Korea and could not find a single person who could represent Korea to carry out his ideas.

Of course, this cannot be blamed on Jordan. After all, when he was transferred to Korea, the British Empire was actually preparing to abandon the Korean Peninsula and naturally would not pay attention to the thoughts of the Koreans. During his tenure in Korea, Jordan was always looking for opportunities to return to China, so he naturally did not pay much attention to the political situation in Korea.

After a long pause, he finally spoke: "Japanese diplomats have protested to Beijing several times, arguing that the Chinese government's recruitment of anti-Japanese personnel in North Korea is a hostile act against the Japanese Empire."

"They also claim that a current Chinese general in Jilin, whose name is something like An, is the chief commander of the North Korean insurgents..."

Morrison, having interviewed in Manchuria before, immediately clarified for Jordan: "You're referring to Ahn Jung-geun, right? He was originally Korean, and his army was mainly composed of Koreans recruited from Korea and Jilin. Therefore, the Chinese argue that this operation is a conflict between the three East Asian countries against the Russian invasion, rather than a border war between Japan, China, and Russia."

"The Wuhan side maintains that the army led by Ahn Jung-geun represents North Korea's anti-Russian forces, but because Japan rudely announced the disbandment of the North Korean armed forces, this North Korean army is unable to return home."

"The Chinese received help from the Korean people during the Russian invasion, so they will not expel their comrades from the country."

"As for the North Korean rebels that Japan is protesting against, the Chinese say that it has nothing to do with the North Korean army led by General Ahn Jung-geun, or that a small number of North Korean soldiers participated in the North Korean righteous army movement out of personal feelings, but this has nothing to do with the North Korean troops stationed in Jilin."

"Japan's attempt to turn Korea into Japanese territory has essentially violated the Treaty of Shimonoseki. It is China and North Korea that should lodge a protest."

"In short, the troops stationed in Wuhan in North Manchuria and the Japanese and Korean troops stationed there had several clashes over the issue of North Korea's righteous army, but both sides clearly exercised restraint and did not turn these clashes into actual conflicts."

"The Chinese army did not enter the traditional territory of North Korea, and the Japanese troops stationed in the coastal area did not expel the local Chinese and Koreans."

"Currently, both sides have confined the conflict to the northeastern region of North Korea, and diplomatically they are just bickering with each other. The North Koreans may indeed hope that the confrontation between Japan and China will continue, otherwise they will not even be able to have their last independent armed force."

"We just haven't had any contact with the North Korean army led by Ahn Jung-geun, so we don't know what General Ahn is thinking."

After much deliberation, Jordan realized that he had no other choice at the moment, since once a reconciliation between Japan and China was reached, it would be too troublesome to sabotage it.

Therefore, he said to Morrison, "Try to find some Chinese connections. We don't have the channels, but the Chinese certainly have the channels to contact the North Koreans."

"If General An can create some problems between Japan and China, then the reconciliation between Japan and China will be undermined by public opinion."

While the British made undermining Sino-Japanese reconciliation their top priority in East Asian foreign policy, the Beiyang military and political groups were also discussing the prospects for Sino-Japanese reconciliation.

If there are still some voices in Wuhan expressing doubts about Sino-Japanese reconciliation, some nationalists worry that the prerequisite for Sino-Japanese reconciliation is that China needs to recognize the privileges granted to Japan by the Qing Dynasty, which is obviously unacceptable.

For the Beiyang clique, Sino-Japanese reconciliation would resolve the unfavorable situation of being attacked from two sides. Almost all military and political officials supported Sino-Japanese reconciliation, believing that it would help the Beiyang clique assimilate the southern Manchurian region and greatly increase the pressure on the Beiyang clique to expand northward from Wuhan.

However, the Beiyang military and political groups were divided on how to deal with Wuhan, with one advocating for armed confrontation and the other advocating for political confrontation.

In the midst of political confrontation, there are two paths: promoting political democratization and prioritizing economic development. Economic development itself has two paths: ensuring people's livelihood and developing heavy industry.

Faced with so many opinions, Yuan Shikai felt overwhelmed. He was not actually an indecisive person, but his decision-making was based on the strength of his opponents.

For example, before the First Sino-Japanese War, when Japan's strength had not yet surpassed that of the Qing Dynasty, it was already decisive and ruthless in Korea. If it weren't for the obstruction from the higher-ups, the Korean issue might not have escalated into a full-scale war between Japan and China.

However, when his opponents were far stronger than the Qing Dynasty, such as during the invasion of the Eight-Nation Alliance, his decisiveness was nowhere to be seen. The Southeast Mutual Protection Pact was not a decisive action, but rather a bystander mentality of detachment. But any elite in the upper class knew the saying: "If the skin is gone, where will the hair attach?" If the Qing Dynasty were gone, could the Beiyang Army still exist?

The situation is similar now. Faced with the strength of Wuhan, Yuan Shikai ultimately felt a sense of fear. This mentality made it difficult for him to bet on a military solution, but he also worried that a political solution would give the other side more time to grow.

Therefore, he ultimately focused the discussion on how to develop the economy, since developing the economy would at least not do any harm, after all, war ultimately requires money.

However, the Beiyang clique became even more divided on the issue of how to develop the economy.

For example, military and political personnel who advocate for the development of heavy industry often oppose land reform; they simply hope to free up resources under the existing tax system to develop industry.

Officials who considered agriculture and light industry important believed that land reform was inevitable because the land concentration in the areas directly ruled by the Beiyang Army was already quite high. Without redistributing land rights, not only would landless peasants be inclined to more radical land revolution policies, but landlords would also be unwilling to use their resources to consume domestically produced inferior industrial goods.

Yuan Shikai then realized that his position during the Qing Dynasty was no match for the current Beiyang clique.

During the Qing Dynasty, at least he had the imperial court above him, which was recognized by everyone. So if someone disagreed with him, he could use the name of the imperial court to expel that person from the Beiyang clique.

However, although people now recognize him as the Chairman of the State Council, they do not believe that his power comes from Yuan's benevolence, but rather from the support of the people. Therefore, Yuan cannot stop people from speaking.

As a result, Yuan Shikai had to consider whether his decisions would alienate some people before making them, which forced him to compromise on many issues.

This attitude of trying to smooth things over often displeases all parties, to the point that some people feel that Marshal Yuan seems to have really gotten old, otherwise how could he have done so many foolish things?

In terms of economic policy, Yuan Shikai actually relied most heavily on two advisors, Chen Bi and Zhou Xuexi, one an old friend and the other the son of an old friend, but the two ended up having differing opinions.

Chen Bi was an economic bureaucrat during the late Qing Dynasty. He made many contributions to the Qing Dynasty's financial policies, but ultimately he was just patching up the old system. Zhou Xuexi, on the other hand, was a representative of the Westernization faction. He advocated developing an industrial powerhouse, not only in terms of technology, but also in terms of systems, he believed that we should learn from the West.

Chen Bi was a monarchist reformist. Although he had a friendship with Yuan Shikai, he was dissatisfied with Yuan Shikai's involvement in the abdication of Emperor Guangxu.

However, he only stayed to help Yuan Shikai save the crisis when faced with Wuhan's radical land policies.

However, his moderate stance on land reform policies led to repeated protests in Wuhan. Ultimately, with Yuan Shikai's compromise, Chen Bi and Tang Caichang switched positions, with Chen changing from Minister of Agriculture and Forestry to Minister of Industry and Commerce.

Even after changing positions, Chen Bi still believed that protecting people's livelihoods was the top priority.

His policy of protecting people's livelihoods meant prioritizing agriculture and light industry, solving the basic needs of the people first, and then developing the heavy industry that the country needed.

Chen Bi opposed the use of violence to strip landlords of their land rights and advocated for a policy of redemption. However, his proposals failed to gain support even within the Beiyang government because the government lacked funds.

Zhou Xuexi also openly criticized his advocacy of protecting people's livelihood, saying: "The great powers are eyeing China covetously. Without industry, the army will have to fight with spears and bows and arrows. In the face of Maxim machine guns, how can you protect people's livelihood?"

"Does Lord Chen expect the great powers to give us time to develop slowly, and only invade when we are able to defend ourselves?"

Chapter 704

Chapter 704

However, Chen Bi was a pragmatist, not a reformist, otherwise Yuan Shikai would not have been close to him.

In response to Zhou Xuexi's criticism, Chen Bi retorted without hesitation: "Developing military and national heavy weapons can prevent the great powers from treating China as prey. This idea was put forward by Zeng, Li, Zuo, and Zhang decades ago."

"But after spending twenty years of the nation's wealth on Westernization, all we got was a defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War. Without the support of the people, what good are warships alone?"

"Given the current internal and external troubles facing the nation, and the fact that none of you possess the talent and prestige of figures like Zeng Guofan, Li Hongzhang, Zuo Zongtang, and Zhang Yusheng, yet you attempt to surpass them, isn't that a joke?"

"The biggest problem facing the country right now is that Wuhan redistributed land rights using violent means to eliminate the landlord class. The rural people felt the strength of Wuhan's power and did indeed benefit from the land reform. Under the combination of kindness and coercion, the villagers became increasingly obedient to Wuhan's policies and lost all concept of the country."

"Therefore, if we cannot appease the people, how can the country have twenty years to launch another Westernization Movement?"

"Moreover, heavy industry is not profitable. Zhang Xiangshuai's Hanyang Ironworks relied on state funding for a long time, and it was only when it could no longer be sustained that it was converted into a commercial enterprise."

"The reason why Wuhan was able to expand the Hanyang Ironworks was not because they found the trick to running an ironworks, but because they had the courage to impose taxes on foreign steel. Outside of Wuhan, this law was almost impossible to enforce."

"Therefore, prioritizing heavy industry means that the country has to allocate a large amount of funds every year to fill the deficit in heavy industry development. Where will this money come from?"

"It can only be obtained by plundering from ordinary people!"

"So if we develop heavy industry, we're just pushing ordinary people to Wuhan. If we lose the hearts and minds of the people, can this government still exist?"

Yuan Shikai knew that Chen Bi and Zhou Xuexi were telling the truth, but he also knew that the two of them were actually avoiding the same question: why Wuhan was able to develop heavy industry while Beiyang was not.

Because Wuhan transformed the income that originally belonged to landlords into national fiscal revenue through land reform, farmers' income, while not increasing significantly, at least did not worsen as a result of the land reform.

While the quality of industrial products manufactured in Wuhan is not as good as those from foreign countries, the fact that they are produced domestically allows farmers to pay after receiving the goods, which greatly reduces loan interest rates in rural areas.

This is difficult to handle in areas outside of Wuhan where industrial goods are imported from abroad and purchased with real money.

Therefore, merchants need to recover their funds as quickly as possible. In addition, merchants also have to pay high interest on their funds, which means that rural areas have a very low capacity to consume industrial products. So developing industrial products on their own actually involves a lot of risk.

Chen Bi opposed prioritizing the development of heavy industry because he looked down on Zhou Xuexi's approach of linking industry with power.

Zhou Xuexi's coal mining and cement industry operations relied on his power as the foundation for their operation. Such behavior of enriching himself at the expense of the public was something even the Qing Dynasty couldn't withstand, let alone today's weak Beiyang government.

Wuhan's development of heavy industry relied on political strength. Since the Wuhan Workers' Party did not need the support of the landlord class, it adopted a strong suppression approach towards the landlords.

Although Chen Bi strongly opposed Wuhan's governance model, believing it to be a mob rule that could not stabilize the country, he had to admit to Yuan Shikai that Wuhan had obtained resources for its initial development by suppressing the landlord class.

According to an American's assessment of China's finances, China's industrial and agricultural output is about US$100 billion, roughly one-third of that of the United States. However, the US government's revenue is US$5.5 million, while China's government revenue is about 3 million taels of silver, equivalent to about US$1.5 million.

However, most of China's tax revenue comes from agriculture, while the United States mainly comes from industry and commerce. Therefore, Americans believe that China's tax structure has great potential for improvement.

This American believes that although U.S. tax revenue mainly comes from industry and commerce, the profits of industry and commerce are closely related to land.

In other words, taxes in the United States are mainly paid by property owners, while in China, almost all taxes are borne by owner-cultivated farmers and tenant farmers.

Landlords used the large amount of rent they received from the land for personal consumption, and very little for reproduction. Even when they did invest in reproduction, they relied on privileges and tax exemptions.

Therefore, this American believes that if China's tax laws could be changed like those in the United States, then the lower classes would unleash a large amount of consumer demand.

Although the landlord class nominally bore a larger share of taxes, they could recoup this tax loss by investing in industry and increasing their capital.

Although the land reform and heavy industry priority policies implemented in Wuhan were not carried out according to the American's ideas, they undoubtedly proved in practice that the American's ideas were correct.

After the landlord class, which accounted for nearly one-third of the GDP, was suppressed in Wuhan, Wuhan had the resources to subsidize its heavy industry. Although the farmers, whose land rents had been reduced, had to buy relatively expensive domestic industrial products, at least they had the savings to purchase industrial products.

This would have been impossible in the past, because this accumulation was originally loan interest that would be seized by landlords.

Therefore, the establishment of an industrial and agricultural economic cycle in the Wuhan controlled area was essentially due to its political action of expropriating landlords' land without compensation.

Farmers in the Wuhan control zone were able to afford high-priced industrial goods, also thanks to land reform and various policies that reduced rural borrowing.

In the past, this income belonged to the landlords, but now it is left to the farmers so that they can use it to consume industrial products.

Although some landlords claimed that Wuhan's exploitation of farmers was even more ruthless than theirs, exchanging high-priced industrial goods for farmers' accumulated wealth, this was blatant economic plunder, also known as the industrial-agricultural price scissors.

However, these landlords avoided mentioning another fact: in agricultural areas where land reform had not been implemented, farmers simply could not afford industrial goods.

Because landlords used various usurious lending methods to take every last penny from the peasants, there was no exchange between industry and agriculture, and naturally, there was no price scissors between industry and agriculture.

Therefore, what Chen Bi admitted to Yuan Shikai was that without adopting the land reform policy of violently eliminating the landlord class in Wuhan, it would be impossible to implement the industrial development plan that prioritizes heavy industry.

However, the ruling foundations of the Beiyang government and the Wuhan Workers' Party were completely different. The Beiyang government was a regime established by a group of landlords. Allowing the Beiyang government to promote land reform policies in Wuhan was tantamount to destroying its own foundation.

Therefore, Beiyang could not implement Wuhan's heavy industry priority plan.

Zhou Xuexi also realized this, but unlike Chen Bi, he was still young and felt that he could not sit idly by and wait for death.

He believed that there was no difference between not developing industry and waiting to die.

The Qing Dynasty refused to reform, while Japan insisted on reform, resulting in the Treaty of Shimonoseki.

Now Wuhan is developing heavy industry, while Beiyang is not. Once Wuhan has developed to a certain extent, will everyone surrender and live as recluses in the foreign concessions?

Frankly speaking, even the option of living as a recluse in the foreign concessions was problematic, because Wuhan and the Qing Dynasty had completely different stances on the foreign powers.

The Qing dynasty was willing to co-govern China with the foreign powers because the Manchus did not recognize themselves as Chinese, while Wuhan claimed to be a representative of the Chinese people and therefore did not recognize any foreigners having special privileges in China.

The fact that various countries had to give up their concessions in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River shows that if Wuhan had really taken over the rule of China, the concessions held by various countries in China might not have been able to continue.

So, are these people going to follow the foreign devils and live overseas?

Without power in China, what difference is there between them and ordinary people overseas?

Ordinary people are always at the mercy of others, no matter where they are.

Therefore, Zhou Xuexi advocated taking a gamble and developing heavy industry before the peasants revolted, hoping that they could weather the storm.

At least, it's much better than watching Wuhan develop rapidly while Beiyang only maintains a stable situation through patchwork repairs.

Yuan Shikai could naturally sense Zhou Xuexi's fear.

Although he was not very familiar with the overall situation in the areas under Wuhan's control, as a native of Henan, he had heard about the changes in the Henan region occupied by Wuhan.

Thanks to the construction of the Beijing-Hankou Railway and the Longqin-Yuhai Railway, the Wuhan forces, which originally only occupied the central Henan region, have expanded their control to the entire Henan province. Now, the Beiyang Army can only deploy its defenses along the old course of the Yellow River.

The Central Plains, which was known for its chaos at the end of the Qing Dynasty, began to become more orderly after the Wuhan forces took over.

One reason why social order deteriorated so badly in Henan at the end of the Qing Dynasty was that the Yellow River changed its course, leading to water shortages in Henan and severely impacting agricultural production.

On the other hand, the Nian Rebellion dealt a heavy blow to the local government system in the Central Plains, which led to the rise of local gentry power, and the Yuan Shikai family was one of the beneficiaries.

After the Wuhan forces entered Henan, they cracked down on local gentry and landlords and suppressed bandits, while redistributing land and encouraging production.

On the one hand, there was a large-scale construction of infrastructure, including railways, highways, and water conservancy projects. These economic development measures greatly alleviated local social conflicts, allowing the local area to begin to restore order.

For example, in 1906, Wuhan had just sent troops to the Henan region when it began to expand the construction of the Pingdingshan Coal Mine and started planning the construction of the Wuyang Iron and Steel Plant.

By 1908, a new city had sprung up in the area where the Wuyang Iron and Steel Plant was located. The number of people working on the construction of the Wuyang Iron and Steel Plant and its ancillary projects had reached as many as 100,000, an efficiency that would have been unimaginable during the Qing Dynasty.

Even the Beiyang government, which has now seized power, would find it difficult to mobilize such a large amount of resources and manpower so efficiently to turn an idea into reality in such a short period of time.

Yuan Shikai was not a bureaucrat who was detached from practical matters. In fact, he rose to prominence through hard work, so he understood very well how many disputes and obstacles were involved in accomplishing such a task.

Even for the Beiyang New Army, which was built with the full support of the imperial court, Yuan Shikai and his staff spent most of their energy just on solving the problems of military pay and camp construction.

The Beiyang New Army was actually able to be trained thanks to the invasion of the Eight-Nation Alliance, which destroyed the Wuwei Army system, leaving the Beiyang New Army as the only usable army in the north.

Therefore, the imperial court had no choice but to reluctantly agree to Yuan Shikai's plan to expand the army; otherwise, the Beiyang Army would still not have been able to become an army with independent combat capabilities.

It took Yuan Shikai seven years, from 1895 to 1902, to complete the formation of this army. This speed was enough to earn him praise from the Qing Dynasty as a capable minister.

In contrast, in 04, the Hubei New Army was not taken seriously by the Beiyang generals, but by 06, the Beiyang Army believed that the Wuhan Army should not be underestimated.

When the war against Russia began, the Beiyang Army had already admitted that it was not as energetic as the Wuhan Army.

By the end of the war, the Beiyang Army believed that if the two armies were to go to war, they would probably only be able to defend Beijing for about a month, assuming that Wuhan would not be attacked.

From 1904 to 1908, the Wuhan army underwent a complete transformation in just four years. Coupled with the construction capabilities of the Wuyang Iron and Steel Plant, Yuan Shikai understood very well what Zhou Xuexi meant by "sitting and waiting for death."

He now somewhat understands Li Hongzhang's mindset in his later years. If you don't act as a patch-up artist, the situation will only deteriorate faster, because reform is not just about cutting off your own hands and feet, but about disemboweling and rebuilding from scratch.

Therefore, what the Workers' Party could do, the Beiyang government really couldn't.

At this point, Yuan Shikai began to appreciate the benefits of Sun Yat-sen and other revolutionaries. Although Sun Yat-sen's revolutionary slogans were very radical, at least he didn't put much pressure on him in reality.