Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 12

Germany and Russia, smug about the chaotic situation in China, demanded that the Allied forces expand their operations beyond simply rescuing diplomats and expatriates in Beijing, and allow for free movement. This rapprochement between Russia and Germany clearly contradicted the British Empire's balance of power in Europe. Even the French, who had previously been actively advocating for escalating the situation in China, began to reconsider and consider Japan's claims to preserve China worthy of discussion.

Although the Americans had not yet made a statement, they had quieted down considerably, no longer as eager as before to attack Shanghai to protect their citizens. The Marquess of Salisbury, who already did not want to escalate the situation, was now even more unwilling to let Germany and Russia dictate the direction of their diplomacy towards China, given the active involvement of both countries. He began instructing the British Minister to Japan to contact the Japanese side and exchange views on a peaceful resolution to the China incident.

After the Yamagata Cabinet was forced to yield to Ito Hirobumi on foreign policy, it also jeopardized the plans of Sun Yat-sen and other revolutionaries. Sun Yat-sen and other revolutionaries established the Revive China Society in Hong Kong and went to Japan to find military and political figures to support the Chinese revolution. Through the introduction of the Genyosha (Genyo Society), Sun Yat-sen obtained the support of the army.

Originally, the Japanese planned for Sun Yat-sen and others to launch an uprising in the south, allowing the Japanese army to land in Fujian, with Sun Yat-sen serving as their banner for taking over Fujian. However, Ito Hirobumi suppressed Yamagata's diplomatic approach through two Imperial Conferences, thus thwarting Yamagata's plan to invade Fujian. Naturally, Yamagata then ordered the army to abandon its support for Sun Yat-sen's uprising.

Without the arms provided by the Japanese army, Sun Yat-sen's plan to launch an uprising in the south while the Boxers were causing chaos in the north failed. After all, those secret societies wouldn't take on tough opponents empty-handed.

Meanwhile, the Workers' Party gradually gained influence among Chinese students in Japan, and held several rallies with them to discuss issues such as the Boxer Rebellion and the invasion of China by the Eight-Nation Alliance.

Sun Yat-sen, who was stranded in Tokyo, learned that many members of the Revive China Society and Liang Qichao's disciples were attracted by the propositions of the Labor Party. So he took Yang Quyun and Zheng Shiliang, key members of the Revive China Society, to a meeting on the afternoon of August 11.

The gathering place was a Japanese-style longhouse, where dozens of Chinese students studying in Japan sat cross-legged. The doors on both sides were open to allow light and air to circulate. Although Tokyo summers are hot, the longhouse was quite cool.

Sun Yat-sen wanted to hear what the meeting was about, so he and his companions quietly went to the back of the crowd and sat down. The people in the room were listening to someone speak and didn't pay much attention to Sun Yat-sen and his companions.

After sitting down, Sun Yat-sen listened quietly for a few minutes and realized that the speaker wasn't discussing revolutionary principles, but rather the development of Japan's textile industry since the Meiji Restoration, and the treatment and living conditions of female textile workers. He was immediately taken aback; wasn't this supposed to be a gathering to discuss revolutionary theory?

It seemed that Sun Yat-sen wasn't the only one with doubts. Someone sitting in front of him couldn't contain his impatience and interrupted the person speaking, saying, "Matsupa, isn't it inappropriate to talk about the lives of Japanese textile workers now? The Russians have already invaded Manchuria, and the Allied forces have occupied Tianjin. It looks like the country is about to perish. Shouldn't we be talking about how to defend the country now?"

Cai E stopped, looked at a classmate who had stood up and questioned him with righteous indignation, and then glanced at the international students whispering below. He finally spoke to the classmate and said, "Defending the country is no problem, but before we defend the country, we must first find out who this country belongs to."

If we don't figure this out first, how can we defend it? If this country belongs to its people, then to defend it we must first organize the people, educate and propagate the message to them, and tell them why we should defend this country.

If this country belongs to a group of oppressors, then we should first educate and propagate among the people how they are oppressed, organize them to overthrow their oppressors, seize the country, and then defend it. The oppressed cannot own a country; they cannot defend something that does not exist.

Cai E's words caused an uproar among the international students below. Several people immediately stood up to argue with Cai E, but they quickly ran out of arguments and could only label Cai E a traitor before leaving the longhouse in dissatisfaction.

Although most people did not leave, many hesitated, so someone asked Cai E: "So, what is the connection between the lives of Japanese textile workers and our revolution?"

After a moment's thought, Cai E said, "Although China has 400 million people, that's only about 20% of the world's population. Japan has 50 million, Russia 150 million, the United States 90 million... The combined population of all the countries the Qing government declared war on far exceeds ours. And in today's world, the strength of a nation is determined by the scale of its industry. Japan's industry is the smallest among the major powers, but even this smallest industrial power is not something an agricultural country like ours can contend with..."

Chapter 39 Assembly

"...If we treat the rulers and ordinary people of these great powers as our enemies, then we will never be able to win. But conversely, if we unite with the people of all countries and overthrow the reactionary rulers of each country, then compared with the number of people united all over the world, these reactionaries will always be a minority, and our cause will surely be victorious."

Cai E's words caused an uproar among the crowd. Although the Labor Party had held many rallies before, this was the first time that it had so clearly included the ruling classes of various countries as targets of revolution.

Soon, someone retorted: "We can't even handle the weakest of the Qing governments, how can we possibly deal with the great powers? Look at the current predicament of our country, how is this any different from the Empress Dowager declaring war on all nations? This is not the path of revolution, this is simply the talk of a madman..."

As they spoke, more than ten people shook their heads and left, completely unable to understand how Cai E intended to unite the people of various countries. Cai E did not try to dissuade them, but simply stood there silently watching them leave. By the time the longhouse quieted down again, a quarter of the people participating in the gathering had disappeared.

However, Cai E was not anxious. Although he knew that those who stayed might not truly support his ideals, many of them simply couldn't see a way out and could only steel themselves to continue listening to his revolutionary narrative. This was already much better than a few months ago. Before the Boxer Rebellion broke out, many overseas students, upon hearing that he wanted to eliminate the landlord class, either retorted or turned away, completely regarding him as a madman.

However, after the Boxer Rebellion broke out, the Qing Dynasty declared war on all nations, and various countries organized a coalition to invade China. The Russians carried out horrific massacres in Hailanpao and the Sixty-Four Villages East of the River and invaded Manchuria. In the blink of an eye, China was on the verge of national extinction. Only then were these students willing to sit down and listen to him talk about the path of the Chinese revolution.

According to his conversation with Lin Xinyi, Lin Xinyi judged that "...they are a group of bees locked in a room with no way out. What they care about is not the path of revolution in China, but whether there is any hope for China. Although they may not join the revolution after listening to a few speeches, when they see that China really has no way out, they will eventually choose to walk with the revolution."

Therefore, the revolutionary ideas he is now promoting are not to ask overseas students to devote themselves to the revolution, but to tell them why China can only take this revolutionary path, and whether this revolutionary path is even viable.

The usually calm Cai E had become even more composed after nearly a year of study and reflection. As the noise in the room gradually subsided, he suddenly spoke loudly: "Those who just left thought that the action of uniting the people of all countries against the capitalists and reactionary classes of all countries was similar to Empress Dowager Cixi's declaration of war against all nations, and that both would only provoke hostility from all countries and thus destroy China. I think they are completely wrong."

Cai E's words finally silenced the room completely, and everyone's eyes were once again on him. Seeing that everyone's attention had been drawn back, Cai E continued, "Why are their views wrong? Look at Japan. Although the Meiji Restoration made some Japanese people rich and the country powerful, even to the point of defeating our country and annexing Korea, the lives of the country's workers were not better than during the Edo period; in fact, they were worse."

During the Edo period, laborers did not work seven days a week. In addition to the regular 12-hour shift, they also had to work overtime for three or four hours.

In Japan's cotton textile industry, for example, women not only have to work 12-hour shifts, but their wages are also lower than those of male workers. In addition, they are subjected to humiliation by foremen.

Because of the poor working conditions in the textile factory, many female workers contracted tuberculosis. The factory owners didn't provide them with proper treatment; they would simply have their families take the sick women home to prevent the infection from spreading to other workers. Some women died before their families arrived, and the factory owners would just wrap them in a straw mat and bury them in a mass grave…

After Cai E recounted the plight of workers in Japan's textile industry that he had investigated, he paused briefly, glanced at the people present, and seeing the expressions of pity on their faces, he continued, "The situation of Japanese workers is not an isolated case. The capitalist prosperity of the major powers in Europe and America is built on such cruel exploitation of workers."

European countries used military and police forces to suppress striking workers, and American capitalists used explosives and bullets. Where is the national glory and statism in their treatment of their own workers? These capitalists and reactionaries are merely using nationhood and statehood to divide the workers of other countries, preventing them from uniting against them…

After the rally ended, Cai E, having finally managed to escape the encirclement of the overseas students, was bombarded with questions by some of them who were clearly interested in the intense struggles within the foreign powers. Cai E understood their concerns, as he had felt the same way when Lin Xinyi recounted these events.

Although he managed to break free from the group of international students, he still greeted the person blocking his way with a wry smile, "Mr. Sun, what brings you here too?"

Although Sun Yat-sen may not have known him, as Liang Qichao's student, he had met Sun Yat-sen once or twice, but only when they met together with others.

Before 1896, most Chinese people had never heard of Sun Yat-sen. However, in the autumn of 1896, when Sun Yat-sen was in exile in Britain, he was unfortunately kidnapped by the Qing government's embassy in Britain. After his escape, Sun Yat-sen wrote an English book, "Kidnapped in London," which led to his name becoming known among intellectuals and his status as a leader of the revolutionaries.

However, Cai E had previously admired reformers like Tan Sitong and Liang Qichao, and was not fond of revolutionaries, so he had no liking for Sun Yat-sen, a revolutionary. Now, although he had turned to revolution, he was dismissive of Sun Yat-sen's revolutionary ideas. After having an in-depth discussion with Lin Xinyi about the path of the Chinese revolution, Cai E became utterly disillusioned with Sun Yat-sen's secret society revolution.

Cai E wasn't particularly excited about Sun Yat-sen's appearance, since his current task was essentially to undermine Sun's influence. Recruiting revolutionaries from among overseas students was a lengthy process, but converting revolutionaries with revolutionary consciousness from the Revive China Society was relatively simpler.

However, Sun Yat-sen was clearly very interested in him. After stopping him, he invited him to find a place to sit and talk about the Chinese revolution. It was evident that he was eager to befriend anyone willing to discuss the Chinese revolution and was trying to bring these people to his side.

By this time, Sun Yat-sen was no longer the simple revolutionary who initially only wanted to overthrow the Manchu regime. After experiencing numerous failures, he finally developed his own revolutionary theory – the Three Principles of the People.

After the failure of the Guangzhou Uprising and his exile in Europe, Sun Yat-sen observed European politics and commented: "I have come to realize that merely achieving national wealth and power, and the development of civil rights, as seen in the European powers, has not yet led the people to a state of ultimate happiness. This is why there are still social revolutionary movements among European patriots. I wish to devise a plan that will solve the problem once and for all, and thus I have adopted the Principle of People's Livelihood to address the issues of nationalism and civil rights simultaneously. This is how the Three Principles of the People came to be."

However, Sun Yat-sen remained a nationalist. His advocacy of democracy was aimed at winning the support of the Western powers, since they all advocated capitalist democracy. His advocacy of people's livelihood was an opposition to social revolution. While in Europe, Sun Yat-sen was not unaware of the oppression and exploitation suffered by the European working class, but he still opposed socialist revolution. Therefore, he attempted to eliminate the soil for socialist revolution by improving people's livelihood.

Sun Yat-sen attempted to correct Cai E's advocacy of a labor revolution with his Three Principles of the People. However, Cai E, who had a profound understanding of nationalism, was clearly not convinced by Sun Yat-sen's nationalism. He knew very well that Sun Yat-sen's nationalism could not persuade Han Chinese figures such as Zhang Zhidong, Li Hongzhang, and Yuan Shikai. After Yuan Shikai betrayed Tan Sitong, he had already lost faith in nationalism.

Therefore, the conversation between the two sides ended without result. At the end of the conversation, Cai E said to Sun Yat-sen: "In my opinion, revolution is about defending the interests of the workers. If even this most basic requirement cannot be met, then who will defend an invisible and intangible nation?"

Chapter Forty: Invitation

After Sun Yat-sen parted ways with Cai E, Zheng Shiliang, who had accompanied him to the rally, was greatly dissatisfied with Cai E's attitude, believing him to be too arrogant. Sun Yat-sen glanced at Yang Quyun, who remained silent beside him, before smiling and saying, "Although he is somewhat arrogant, he is indeed a rare talent. If this man could join my Revive China Society, then the revolutionary forces would grow even stronger. Quyun, what do you think?"

As the first president of the Revive China Society, Yang Quyun stepped down as president to prioritize the overall situation after Sun Yat-sen contacted the Japanese to support the revolution. Sun Yat-sen, who had previously been his secretary, took over the presidency. However, the Revive China Society is now in a dilemma due to the Japanese change of heart, especially given the planned uprising in the south, which was primarily organized by members of the Furen Literary Society, whose fundraising and manpower were also for the uprising.

Because of this matter, Sun Yat-sen felt somewhat guilty when facing Yang Quyun, since his position as chairman came from the support of the Japanese. After losing the support of the Japanese, his position inevitably seemed somewhat illegitimate.

However, Yang Quyun's mind was much broader than Sun Yat-sen had imagined. In fact, he was thinking about the revolutionary principles that Cai E had just said. Although Cai E's revolutionary principles were somewhat harsh to him, he was able to accept them because he had also worked in a factory learning mechanics in his early years. He lost three fingers due to a work injury before he went on to learn English and become a comprador.

Although he had now become a landowner and a propertied person, he remained disgusted with imperialism and certain bourgeois practices, which ultimately led him to become a revolutionary. However, he had previously attributed the rampant imperialism in China to the incompetence of the Qing government, and therefore believed that the Manchu government should be overthrown and a republic should be established.

But after hearing Cai E's words today, he felt he had understood something. However, when Sun Wen asked him, he concealed his thoughts and replied with a smile, "He is indeed a rare talent. No wonder it's said that the sons of Hunan are full of talent. After Tan Fusheng and Tang Caichang, Cai Songpo has emerged. This school is truly brimming with talent. It's getting late, let's hurry up, or we'll miss the public carriage..."

Sun Yat-sen was taken aback, but nodded in agreement, saying, "Indeed, let's go, let's go."

On the other side, after parting ways with Sun Wen and others, Cai E walked along the alley toward his dormitory, pondering when he should go see Lin Xinyi again to see if he had any new articles published recently.

Lin Xinyi, who was being thought of by Cai E, had been living a very fulfilling life these days. He even forgot that he was still a Form 5 student because he had filled his schedule to the brim.

Every morning he would take a public carriage directly to the Imperial Library, where he would search for various news materials and compare them with his own memories. When he had time, he would also read various works of this era. Compared to reading books online in later generations, flipping through physical books did indeed allow him to concentrate more.

In the afternoon, he will go to Shinjuku, northwest of Tokyo, to study German with a teacher. This teacher is a graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, who later went to the United States and returned to Japan to become a professor at Tokyo Senmongaku, a university founded by Shigenobu Okuma. Although it is still a bit far from being a university, judging from the amount of land it occupies, Shigenobu Okuma intends to build it into a first-class university.

His German teacher, Isoo Abe, was a moderate pacifist and quite meticulous in his teaching. However, his views on Germany differed from those of other students who had returned from studying in Germany. He saw not Germany's strength, but the mechanical nature of its people. He felt that life in the country was too oppressive, so he eventually went to study in the United States.

Lin Xinyi and Professor Abe got along quite well, as the latter had considerable knowledge of socialism currently prevalent in Europe, while Abe also had his own views on the workers' movement. This benefited Lin Xinyi greatly and also helped him improve his German quickly, because among the German books Abe brought back were works such as the Communist Manifesto, which increased his interest in learning German.

However, just as he left the Imperial Library that day, preparing to wait for a public carriage to go to Shinjuku where the vocational school was located, he was stopped by a carriage. Lin Xinyi, holding his books, went to look at them and saw a person open the carriage door and greet him, "Where are you going, Mr. Lin? How about I give you a ride?"

Lin Xinyi was stunned for a moment before recognizing the other person. He was a little wary but still greeted him with a smile: "Mr. Tomiyama, what brings you here? But thank you for your kindness, Mr. Tomiyama. We are not going the same way. I will take a public carriage."

After sitting in the carriage and looking down at Lin Xinyi for a few seconds, Tomiyama Mitsuru suddenly smiled, got up and got off the carriage. He then bowed to Lin Xinyi and said, "I learned a lot from your game last time, Mr. Lin. Actually, I came here today specifically to invite you to lunch and ask you for some pointers."

Lin Xinyi said with some surprise, "I'm just a Form 5 student, how could I possibly teach Mr. Tomiyama? Mr. Tomiyama, you're so hospitable, I'm quite embarrassed. Let's skip the meal, I have things to do this afternoon."

With a smile that hadn't changed, Tomiyama made way for the carriage and then gestured invitingly, saying, "Ah, Mr. Lin, are you referring to the trip to Professor Abe's house to study? Please rest assured, I've already taken the liberty of sending a leave letter to request leave for you. Actually, it's not me who truly wants to invite Mr. Lin to dinner, but someone else. Please forgive me, Mr. Lin, as I cannot reveal this gentleman's name."

After thinking for a moment, Lin Xinyi said with a smile, "Since Mr. Toyama has made such good arrangements, it seems that we really can't skip this meal."

But after Lin Xinyi stepped onto the carriage, he suddenly stopped, turned around and looked at Fushan Man behind him, asking curiously, "Mr. Fushan, have you also notified Uncle Ogawa's family?"

Tomiyama was caught off guard and it took him several seconds to reply, "No, I don't. Should I send someone back to inform them?"

Lin Xinyi shook his head and said, "That won't be necessary. It seems Mr. Toyama doesn't intend to invite me to dinner, which puts my mind at ease."

Tomiyama Mitsuru hesitated for a moment before getting into the carriage. Once inside, Lin Xinyi leaned back in his seat and closed his eyes to rest. Tomiyama Mitsuru didn't know how to talk to him, so he could only silently knock on the side of the carriage to signal the driver to move forward.

Although Lin Xinyi didn't pay attention to the carriage's route, he could tell from inside the carriage that it was heading towards the port area. After nearly an hour, the carriage finally stopped. Lin Xinyi got off and found himself in a private courtyard, with the sea visible to the east.

At this time, Tokyo Bay still largely retained its natural scenery. Looking at the blue sky and sea before him, with a gentle sea breeze blowing, one couldn't help but feel invigorated. Tomiyama Mitsuru stood to the side without urging him on. Lin Xinyi admired the scenery for a while before turning to Tomiyama Mitsuru and saying, "This doesn't look like a restaurant, does it?"

Mitsuru Tomiyama smiled and said, "This is one of my houses in Tokyo. It's quieter here to host a banquet for friends."

Lin Xinyi didn't say anything more, but simply asked the other person to walk ahead. Tomiyama Mitsuru led Lin Xinyi for five or six minutes, bringing him to a two-story red brick Western-style building, which the Japanese called the Red-Robed Tile Building.

The two went up the wooden stairs to the second floor, where there was a terrace facing the sea. A Western-style dining table and several chairs had already been set up on the terrace. Tomiyama Mitsuru asked Hayashi Shin-yi to sit down at the Western-style dining table first, and then he hurriedly went downstairs.

With a "what's done is done" attitude, Lin Xinyi admired the scenery for a while before picking up a book he had brought and starting to read. After flipping through about ten pages, he heard footsteps coming from inside the room. Soon, a group of waiters came out carrying Western food, and after a flurry of activity, they placed the dishes in front of Lin Xinyi and poured several glasses of wine. Lin Xinyi noticed that three glasses of wine had been poured.

As he pondered whether Tomiyama Mitsuru should be counted among the three, he saw Tomiyama Mitsuru enter with two elderly men with gray beards. The waiter quickly withdrew, and after helping the two elders to their seats, Tomiyama Mitsuru introduced them to Lin Xinyi: "This is Marquis Saigo, and this is Viscount Ito..."

Chapter 41 Lunch Conversation 1

Seeing that the young man across the table only showed surprise for a few seconds after hearing their names before regaining his composure, Saigo Tsugumichi was left with a good impression of Hayashi Nobuyoshi. Perhaps to people today, Hayashi Nobuyoshi's age might seem a bit frivolous in discussing national affairs, but for these old men who came from the shogunate era, they wouldn't feel that way, because it was at this age that they devoted themselves to the anti-shogunate movement.

To put it bluntly, if it weren't for these hot-blooded young samurai who became a continuous reserve force for the Meiji Restorationists, how could the anti-shogunate movement have succeeded?

The so-called Four Wise Lords were actually a group of elderly men who had foreseen the shogunate's inability to withstand the pressure from the foreign powers and were focusing on building up their domains in preparation for the overthrow of the shogunate, but dared not take action. If it weren't for these impulsive young men raising the first cry for the overthrow of the shogunate, the accumulated strength of the Four Wise Lords would not have transformed into the force to overthrow the shogunate, and Japan would never have ushered in the Meiji era.

Thinking back to the group of young people who swore an oath with his brother to overthrow the shogunate, Saigo felt that today's Japanese youth were too obedient. The current school education in Japan has made young people more and more obedient, but they have lost their precious ambition. How can Japanese youth who take getting into the top high school as their life goal be compared with the youth of his time who vowed to change Japan?

Modern Japanese youth often view studying as a chore, but in their time, learning was seen as a means to overthrow the shogunate and change Japan. Therefore, learning was a joyful experience, and no samurai would resist seizing the opportunity to acquire knowledge that would benefit them. With this belief, even those who weren't particularly bright could achieve something.

However, such young people have been rare since the Meiji Restoration. Hayashi Nobuyoshi's appearance did indeed remind Saigo of his younger self, because back then, the reformers discussed world affairs in this way and then diligently studied knowledge beneficial to themselves.

The only thing he found hard to believe was that Lin Xinyi possessed such international insight. After all, it was difficult for a remote rural area like Minami Shinano to access such information, even though Japan was much more civilized than it had been decades ago. He initially thought this was a smokescreen put out by Ito to hide the real mastermind, so he had Genyosha investigate Lin Xinyi.

The origins of the Genyosha are actually closely related to Saigo Takamori during the Satsuma Rebellion. Back then, disillusioned samurai who were dissatisfied with the Meiji Restoration's suppression of the samurai class and the central government's focus on domestic affairs rather than external expansion gathered in Satsuma. Ultimately, they fought a final samurai war against the central government under Saigo Takamori's banner, and the surviving samurai became the so-called Mainland Ronin.

It was under Saigo Tsugumichi's protection that these mainland ronin gained the opportunity to develop coal mines in Kyushu. The navy's development required a large amount of coal, so Kyushu's coal mines became gold mines. It was the profits from the coal mines that enabled these losers of the Satsuma Rebellion to reorganize and provide funds for the mainland ronin's activities.

The outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War allowed the army to utilize the intelligence gathered by these mainland ronin (masterless samurai) operating in Korea. Thus, these mainland ronin, previously viewed with suspicion by the state, were successfully legitimized and became the vanguard of the military's mainland policy. The Genyosha, in essence, represented the dark side of feudal politics. What feudal politicians couldn't do openly was carried out through the Genyosha, similar to the assassinations and reforms organized by samurai who broke away from their domains during the late Edo period.

Although Mitsuru Tomiyama was the leader of the Genyosha, the Genyosha's power was merely a puppet regime placed under his name by various parties. He was the one who managed it and ultimately bore the brunt of public criticism. Therefore, Tomiyama could only submit to Saigo. After receiving Saigo's instructions, Tomiyama conducted a thorough investigation.

After reading Tomiyama's investigation report, especially the description of the game, Saigo Tsurudo finally realized that Ito had not deceived them. Ito's new diplomatic policy proposals at these two Imperial Conferences came from the young man's views.

Saigo certainly wouldn't accuse Ito of plagiarizing someone else's ideas. For people in their position, there are very few new ideas left. It's quite normal to get new ideas from subordinates. For example, on naval issues, Saigo's ideas actually came from Yamamoto Gonbei. So much so that Yamamoto had the nickname "Minister Gonbei" when he was still the head of the Military Affairs Bureau.

For Saigo, there are only two problems at present. One is to figure out what Ito's new diplomatic philosophy is in order to determine whether the Navy can continue to support Ito. The other is to see if there is an opportunity to recruit young people into the Navy, as talented young people are still in short supply for the Navy or the Satsuma faction.

The calm demeanor of the young man in front of the two men made Saigo more inclined to recruit him into the navy. While he was sizing up Lin Xinyi, Lin Xinyi was also observing the two. He didn't know who Viscount Ito was for the time being, but as for Marquis Saigo, in present-day Japan, there was only Saigo Tsurumichi. Although he, from a later era, wasn't familiar with this person, the Japanese of this era were no strangers to the name Saigo; after all, whenever newspapers discussed the feudal lords, they couldn't avoid mentioning Saigo.

However, Lin Xinyi was unaware of the reason for Saigo's presence here. While he was pondering this, Saigo dismissed Tomiyama Mitsuru, indicating that a quiet conversation was needed. Tomiyama Mitsuru could only obediently retreat, completely lacking the domineering demeanor he had displayed in front of the Imperial Library.

Just as Lin Xinyi was watching Tomiyama Mitsuru enter the room, Saigo finally spoke to him, saying, "Actually, the reason I asked Tomiyama to invite you over was because I heard that you have some very interesting views on the situation in Qing China, so I asked Ito to come with me to listen to them."

Listening to Saigo's condescending speech, Lin Xinyi didn't feel flattered. After all, he wasn't a Japanese of this era, nor did he plan to join the navy. So he didn't feel the need to engage in any lengthy discussions with Saigo. He could probably talk about the situation in Qing China from now until evening, but he wasn't familiar with Saigo, and Saigo hadn't paid him. Why should he waste so much breath?

Considering Saigo's status, Lin Xinyi decided to cut to the chase and end the conversation as soon as possible, so he could probably still enjoy a few bites of hot steak. Having made up his mind, he went straight to the point: "If Marquis Saigo is concerned about the impact of the Qing situation on the navy, then I believe the changes in the Qing situation will have little effect on the navy, because the Qing will soon offer a compromise, and the navy doesn't need to prepare anything."

Sitting next to Saigo, Ito Sukeyuki felt that the boy was a bit arrogant. He frowned and said, "With the size of China, as long as the Qing government decides to move the capital, the war can continue. The Qing government just declared war on all nations. How could they change their minds so quickly? They can't possibly treat war like a child's game, can they?"

Lin Xinyi didn't want to go on at length, so he simply replied: "It's a Manchu-Han issue. Although the Manchus have been in China for over 200 years, they have never considered themselves Chinese. Their rule over China was just a matter of taking it one day at a time, and when they couldn't maintain their rule, they planned to return to their homeland. Therefore, the Manchus used the Willow Palisade to block off the area outside the Great Wall for nearly 200 years, and only under the invasion of Russia were they forced to allow Han Chinese to immigrate to Manchuria."

In the eyes of the Manchus, Manchuria was their homeland, an territory they could not afford to lose, while other places were colonies. Losing colonies would not shake their rule. Therefore, during the two Opium Wars, when Britain and France attacked from south to north, the Qing Dynasty was able to hold out for a long time, and even discussed the issue of relocating the capital and continuing the war.

However, after my country occupied southern Manchuria during the Sino-Japanese War, the Manchus immediately surrendered, without even considering the possibility of relocating the capital. This was because the Manchus were well aware that without Manchuria, they would have nowhere to go.

The same applies this time. The Russians invaded Manchuria from the north, and the Manchus once again faced the risk of losing their homeland. Unable to resist the Russians, the Manchus had no choice but to compromise. They reasoned that without Manchuria, the Manchus could not rule China, but without China, they could at least return to Manchuria.

The only ones going to war with all nations this time are the Manchus. If even the Manchus don't want to fight anymore, won't the war end? This isn't child's play; it's that those who supported the war have lost their supporters.

Ito, who had initially looked down on the boy, was now silenced by the boy's words. Saigo also said thoughtfully, "No wonder Li Hongzhang was willing to be shot to sign the treaty in Shimonoseki. At the time, we were relieved, but now it seems that it was because the Manchus could not afford to lose Manchuria."

After a moment's thought, Ito immediately said, "If Russia occupies Manchuria, then Japan will have a major enemy at its doorstep. The Russian navy is far superior to the Qing navy; how can you say that this will have no impact on the navy?"

Saigo, upon hearing this, turned his attention back to the boy. He had brought Ito with him precisely for this reason; as an army soldier, he knew nothing about naval strategy, which was why he obeyed Yamamoto Gonnohyōe so readily. If it weren't for the terrifying situation, he had originally intended to have Yamamoto accompany him, but Yamamoto was now the Minister of the Navy, so he had chosen Ito, who was uninterested in politics.

As it is now, Ito is asking the boy questions from the Navy's perspective, so he will naturally hear what he wants to hear. However, Lin Xinyi scratched his head in annoyance and said to them, "I thought the Navy wouldn't consider such a trivial question."

Ito laughed at the boy's antics. "What kind of talk is that? The Russians have invaded Japan's doorstep, and the navy is studying how to fight them? Is that a pointless question?"

Lin Xinyi looked at Viscount Ito and nodded sincerely, saying, "Because as long as the navy cares about its future, it will not try to fight the Russians. Once the Russo-Japanese War breaks out, there will be two losers: Tsar Nicholas II and the Japanese Navy. I think the navy will not consider such a war unless it has lost its mind."

Ito stared wide-eyed at the boy, wondering if he'd misheard—someone dared to openly accuse the navy of being brainless. However, Saigo Tsugumichi, standing nearby, pressed Hayashi Nobuyoshi with interest, asking, "Why do you think the losers are Tsar Nicholas II and the Japanese navy?"

Chapter 42 Lunch Conversation II

Lin Xinyi looked at the steak on his plate, which was gradually getting cold, with a hint of resentment, thinking that he probably wouldn't be able to eat a hot bite. His behavior led Saigo Tsurudo to think that Lin Xinyi had never eaten Western food before and therefore didn't know how to use a knife and fork, so he demonstrated it for him. After putting down his knife and fork, he said, "To be honest, I still prefer sake with sashimi. There's really nothing to eat in Western food."

Saigo Tsurumi's easygoing personality made him quite approachable, and with the other's prompting, Hayashi Shinichi was finally able to talk without going hungry. As he cut his steak, his mood finally lightened, he said, "From Ivan the Terrible onwards, the Russian attitude towards monarchs has been that the Tsar can be cruel but not incompetent. This is also the root cause of Catherine the Great's ability to kill her husband and ascend the throne, something unimaginable in Eastern countries. Therefore, the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War will shake the rule of Nicholas II."

"Wait a minute." Ito Sukeyuki quickly stopped the boy, looking at him with suspicion, and said, "Russia is a major European power, a behemoth compared to Japan. Even the Germans are cautious about whether they can defeat Russia. What makes you think Japan will definitely win? Your imagination should be based on facts, right? Japan's army and navy are not at the same level as Russia's."

Lin Xinyi chewed on a small piece of steak and then swallowed it with a sip of red wine. The steak was very tender, and he ate it happily. He simply shrugged at Ito Sukeyuki's statement and said in a helpless tone, "This was a war between Japan and Russia, and I will not deny this objective fact. Judging from the paper data of both sides, Japan was certainly lagging behind Russia."

Saigo Tsugumichi crossed his arms, watching the young man speak with great interest. He felt that the boy's words were not mere boasting, but rather a genuine conviction of Japanese victory. Just as he had guessed, Hayashi Nobuyoshi then explained his reasons for believing Japan would win: "However, in my opinion, the actual combatants should be Russia and Britain. Japan is merely a war adversary arranged by Britain for Russia. Britain will certainly not allow Russia to win, therefore Japan will definitely win. It's that simple."

Ito Sukeyuki felt he was falling behind the boy's train of thought. He asked with a puzzled look, "Why is this a war between Russia and Britain? Even if Britain supports our country, it doesn't mean Britain is going to war with Russia. The conflict between Britain and Russia isn't serious enough to warrant war. Russia's interests in Manchuria and Mongolia don't infringe on Britain's interests in China..."

In response to Ito Sukeyuki's analysis, Lin Xinyi simply smiled and shook his head, saying, "If you only see the struggle for interests between Britain and Russia, then indeed, the two sides are not going to go to war over such small interests, and Russia has no ambition to challenge British interests."

However, if you look at it from a different perspective, from the global order constructed by Britain, you can clearly see that Russia's invasion of Manchuria had in fact disrupted the balance of power in Europe and the international order in East Asia.

For the shogunate, what kind of feudal lords were most hateful? Not those who dared to challenge the shogunate's dignity, but those who destroyed the Tokugawa empire. The relationship between Britain and the world was, in essence, the relationship between the shogunate and Japan.

If Britain allowed Russia to invade China, its global hegemonic order would be on the verge of collapse. Therefore, Britain would certainly launch a war against Russia in the Far East; it might not intervene directly, but the war would definitely be orchestrated by Britain. Therefore, Russia was destined to lose.